Views from the treadmill on Labor leadership

It used to be the way that the best insights into politicians' thinking was over a drink at the members' bar. But these days a great vantage point is the treadmill at the parliamentary gym.

At least, as never much of a social drinker, it was where I got my best intel.

As a regular gym goer, it has given me a ringside seat in two recent leadership battles. It arms me with the knowledge that while Labor is still underestimating Abbott, the new Prime Minister did not make the same mistake. But more of that a little later.

I have a pretty clear memory of the events leading up to Abbott's ascent to Liberal leadership. At the time, I was working as a senior advisor in the office of Robert McClelland, then Attorney-General, but had decided to pull the pin and go back to a real job in journalism.

Like most in Labor, quite a few of those around me couldn't quite believe Abbott could be leader, let alone Prime Minister.

But Abbott's assured performance in parliament after Malcolm Turnbull's attack on Kevin Rudd over the so-called "Utegate Affair" turned to dust convinced me that the former Health minister would be the next Liberal leader.

After spending 18 months in the political wilderness after the 2007 election defeat, Abbott's parliamentary experience and ability on the floor of the House - on display on that day - were critical in raising his standing and belief among party colleagues that he was an alternative leader.

It was a judgement that was validated in the coming years as Abbott ruthlessly used Question Time and manipulated parliamentary standing orders to launch daily attacks on Labor.

It created compelling vision for the nightly news and as an Opposition leader hampered by a lack of resources and concrete announceables,  those media opportunities are invaluable

In contrast, during this time Labor's best parliamentary performer, Julia Gillard, seemed trapped by the constraints and expectations of the office of Prime Minister. Only few on Labor benches rose to Abbott's challenge. The most effective of those was Anthony Albanese.

Yet despite Abbott's success in parliament, many in Labor refused to acknowledge his ability. It is rare that I find myself in agreement with The Australian's culture warrior Chris Kenny but I found myself nodding with his assessment that Labor continues to fail to under-estimate Abbott. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/features/know-your-enemy-tony-abbott-continues-to-confound-the-left/story-e6frg6z6-1226738524236#

"They betray not only a failure to learn from last month's landslide but wilful blindness to similar lessons from the entire Howard era."

Getting back to the insights I got from my vantage of the running machine, I offer this little anecdote to give colour to that point.

On 30 November 2009, I took myself down to the parliamentary gym as the Liberal Party tore itself apart with Malcolm Turnbull facing a mutiny over his support of the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme.

As I walked past Aussies to the gym, a group of Liberal staffers and MPs were gathered around a TV screen with glum expressions as the challenge to Turnbull unfolded.

In the gym, it was a different story. Craig Emerson and two other Labor MPs - whose identity now evades me - were peddling away on exercise bikes and chortling as it became clear Abbott would be the next Liberal Party leader. Despite the exertion, they had grins from ear to ear at the elevation of a man they considered unelectable.

Contrast that scene with one that I witnessed only weeks ago as the Labor party leadership contest between Bill Shorten and Anthony Albanese commenced.

It was the day Abbott's frontbench had been sworn in and the gym was nearly empty. The last person I expected to see coming into the gym was the new Prime Minister with his  distinctive swagger. As he came in, Albanese was launching his leadership campaign at NSW Trades Hall.  Spotting Albo on the gym TVs, he turned to myself and another still in the gym and asked if he could turn up the volume so he could listen while exercising.

"Gotto listen to him" he winked. He then proceeded to go through his gym routine of stomach crunches, all the time listening intently to Albo's speech.

Now I may be wrong but I suspect at that time Abbott had a clear view of whom his main challenge would be as Opposition leader and it was Albo having locked horns with the Marrickville mauler over the dispatch box for many years.

I could be wrong again but I suspect Abbott and colleagues would be most comfortable with the outcome of the Labor leadership ballot. To say, Shorten is a lacklustre parliamentary performer is an understatement. An embarrassment would be a closer description. Day after day he would come into the chamber with cheap arse workshopped gags that make most on his side of the chamber cringe. They made my Dad jokes look like the best of Oscar Wilde.

And with only little over two terms in parliament it is not surprising. For all the talk of "generation change", there is no substitute for experience;  an understanding and assuredness on the floor of parliament in most cases takes time. In contrast, having spent 11 years in the wilderness, Albo has that in spades, even if his campaign leader was tired and lacking.

As a result, I find myself searching to understand the decision by a majority of caucus members. The only thing I can think is that many not having ever been in Opposition have no understanding of what now confronts them.

The decision continues the disconnect between community views and those of caucus members which characterised the Rudd/Gillard years. It was clear from published polling that Albo was not only the lay members' favourite but also the community's. However, as has been the way in recent years, many of those in caucus - particularly among Right-wing apparatchiks - think they know better.

Good luck guys. You'll need every ounce of it.